Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8093e585fce25cd269e9a8bfd2d244e49c3da7cc6620d66f02f02688d1049b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 23c | 1,204$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.45 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 17c | 592.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 324.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 269.5$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 170.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 78c | 165.01$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 39c | 162.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 160.14$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 143.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 140.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 36c | 140.42$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.17 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 131$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 116.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 70c | 114.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 109.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.37 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 15c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 100.91$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked Yes | 45c | 97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 88.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 30c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 85.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 84.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 83.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.09 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 81.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 58c | 77.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 28c | 71.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 70.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 63.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 72c | 62.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 53.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 51.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 49.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 23c | 48.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 22c | 48.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 41c | 46.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 32c | 46.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 46.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 59c | 46.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 38.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 68c | 37.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 60c | 36.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 36.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 29.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 52c | 29.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 65c | 29.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 73c | 28.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 40c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 64c | 21.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 60c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 80c | 19.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 19.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…9441backed No | 79c | 19.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 18.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 70c | 17.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 17.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 65°F or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.