Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66428226e6d8324b44c6c6a66463d07be68ae4000cbd4f840560847d0534d065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f0…2768backed Yes | 43c | 23,256$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,255.81 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de4…b032backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,400 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 4c | 7,119$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.97 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 5,675$2,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,525.21 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 3,483$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.82 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes | 44c | 2,273$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.72 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.36per pick | 46cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed No | 58c | 1,541$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.78 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 56c | 1,398$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.64 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 57c | 1,313$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.95 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,126 | 46.3%521 W · 605 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 42c | 789.37$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.21 | 118 | 63.6%75 W · 43 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 56c | 631.02$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.37 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f6…7bd7backed No | 52c | 483.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 5c | 477.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b45…e3febacked Yes | 66c | 454.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5865…696abacked No | 62c | 446.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked Yes | 43c | 326.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.14 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 31c | 324.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 66c | 301$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.53 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 205 | 20%41 W · 164 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 42c | 283.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.55 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 35c | 253.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.56 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 65c | 231.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Yes | 43c | 222$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 15c | 202.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 57c | 178$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 21c | 148.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked No | 36c | 135$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 43c | 125.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed Yes | 37c | 124.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…8c53backed No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 33c | 105$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 346 | 59.8%207 W · 139 L | +49.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 40c | 98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2062…6be2backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 57c | 83.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 39c | 81.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Yes | 63c | 79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…b796backed No | 61c | 71.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…7e76backed Yes | 45c | 67.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 55c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 565 | 45.5%257 W · 308 L | -24.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…bea8backed Yes | 67c | 52.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 43c | 50.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 376 | 62.5%235 W · 141 L | +61.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Yes | 43c | 45.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 398 | 61.8%246 W · 152 L | +56.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…1583backed No | 38c | 45.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 62c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 488 | 67.8%331 W · 157 L | +68.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 57c | 41.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 65c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x096e…efd8backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 31c | 32.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9259…2074backed Yes | 69c | 31.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…2193backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 58c | 29.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 58c | 28.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 64c | 25.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 57c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 53c | 22.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 58c | 18.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Yes | 60c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf229…8583backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.