Asian League · resolved market
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a41c8742323cc96b21d8592b80565f2cd2f590942a5b1e6c85ffa29a7cf7272
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 32c | 3,153$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.92 | 137 | 46.7%64 W · 73 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 2,004$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.11 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 1,439$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.66 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 69c | 652$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.26 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 33c | 630.37$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.37 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 593.11$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 548.26$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.54 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 68c | 519$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 460.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Yes | 31c | 435.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Yes | 30c | 412.07$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 69c | 289.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…656dbacked Yes | 31c | 250$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 15c | 222$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 71c | 207.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Yes | 33c | 168.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 32c | 167.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked No | 70c | 165.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 68c | 163.25$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Yes | 30c | 161$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 35c | 153.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 35c | 138.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 299 | 17.4%52 W · 247 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 71c | 125.37$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f4…5222backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 16c | 90.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…74f7backed Yes | 27c | 86.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Yes | 16c | 71.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 31c | 46.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes | 33c | 35.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 69c | 30.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.