Tennis · resolved market
ITF Karuizawa: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Tomohiro Masabayashi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6649ea73174bdd7cd3fba1b3940aa80f5fa0a1904aa11b86b07475cd593148b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hikaru Shiraishiof Hikaru Shiraishi, Tomohiro Masabayashi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 33c | 2,511$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.52 | 361 | 45.2%163 W · 198 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 26c | 1,656$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.01 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…3e7abacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 1,042$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 67c | 870.52$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.17 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 68c | 589.97$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 69c | 506.24$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 67c | 330.52$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.22 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…7765backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 304.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 29c | 258.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 169.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0b…1435backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 390 | 35.9%140 W · 250 L | -61.1wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…ca80backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 29c | 136.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…b743backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…3b08backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 509 | 58%295 W · 214 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 71c | 108.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 78c | 105.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9050…3a19backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 94.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Tomohiro Masabayashi | 24c | 65.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Tomohiro Masabayashi | 26c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…8ff7backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 394 | 43.9%173 W · 221 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Hikaru Shiraishi | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 74c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Hikaru Shiraishi | 69c | 14.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.