MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6679fefb5b659149165741738deab8c8f5f62bd638cc4692cfe4b820e286e044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 17,158$6,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,348.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 16,131$10,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,968.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 1,640$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.67 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 1,143$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 1,005$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.9 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 906.63$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 804.27$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 35c | 733.33$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 490.94$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.47 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 384.11$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.96 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Atlanta Braves | 61c | 340$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 261.54$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…2eeebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 243$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 162.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 57.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 56.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 48.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…0435backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 33.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 32.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 30.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaf…22d5backed Atlanta Braves | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.