Tennis · resolved market
Centurion: Alec Beckley vs Stefano Napolitano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x668c361e70bab3879171cfd14e56146a46301ccb107791a0b15ae3c8296d77df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stefano Napolitanoof Alec Beckley, Stefano Napolitano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Stefano Napolitano | 77c | 5,195$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.81 | 504 | 58.9%297 W · 207 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Alec Beckley | 23c | 2,391$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Alec Beckley | 10c | 1,612$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.19 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Alec Beckley | 23c | 1,522$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,865 | 45.6%851 W · 1,014 L | +50.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Alec Beckley | 2c | 1,453$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 333 | 52.6%175 W · 158 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alec Beckley | 1c | 1,344$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb06…adccbacked Stefano Napolitano | 78c | 1,120$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.11 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Alec Beckley | 22c | 1,061$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.52 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Alec Beckley | 24c | 1,058$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.77 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Alec Beckley | 24c | 1,051$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.31 | 538 | 43.5%234 W · 304 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Alec Beckley | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Stefano Napolitano | 77c | 403.72$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Stefano Napolitano | 78c | 384$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 226 | 67.7%153 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Alec Beckley | 10c | 270.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 668 | 34.3%229 W · 439 L | -43.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Alec Beckley | 24c | 207.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 578 | 42.4%245 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Alec Beckley | 23c | 191.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Alec Beckley | 21c | 170.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…d5c1backed Alec Beckley | 14c | 170.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Alec Beckley | 22c | 163$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Stefano Napolitano | 76c | 129.87$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Stefano Napolitano | 77c | 87.16$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 917 | 55.5%509 W · 408 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alec Beckley | 19c | 77.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Stefano Napolitano | 78c | 71.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Alec Beckley | 25c | 70.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Stefano Napolitano | 75c | 62.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Alec Beckley | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Alec Beckley | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…fba8backed Stefano Napolitano | 79c | 39.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 380 | 74.5%283 W · 97 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…b1ccbacked Stefano Napolitano | 74c | 32.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 392 | 54.1%212 W · 180 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Stefano Napolitano | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 423 | 53.7%227 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Stefano Napolitano | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 347 | 29.4%102 W · 245 L | -35.6wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Stefano Napolitano | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 277 | 55.6%154 W · 123 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Stefano Napolitano | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 182 | 58.8%107 W · 75 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…0705backed Stefano Napolitano | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 265 | 63.8%169 W · 96 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Stefano Napolitano | 78c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Stefano Napolitano | 76c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Stefano Napolitano | 76c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafb…3031backed Stefano Napolitano | 80c | 15.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 336 | 73.2%246 W · 90 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 78cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Centurion: Alec Beckley vs Stefano Napolitanothis page
- Beckley vs. Napolitano: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.