Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66cde41a6fdd08ce2008c5fbe5d5abe1b8c542ce21aa0ba5472689db742cc3ac

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: NRG Esportsof NRG Esports, Contingent Esports
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $72,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $92,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Lol
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x58f8…dc70backed Contingent Esports	18c	11,710$2,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064.68	403	70.2%283 W · 120 L	+31.3wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Contingent Esports	19c	3,006$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.78	411	33.8%139 W · 272 L	-28.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Contingent Esports	18c	2,183$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.5	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+34.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Contingent Esports	16c	1,882$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.06	421	43.9%185 W · 236 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Contingent Esports	27c	1,550$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.5	174	39.1%68 W · 106 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Contingent Esports	18c	1,537$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.57	1,308	38.6%505 W · 803 L	-64.8wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4cf7…4b3abacked Contingent Esports	18c	1,175$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.44	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed NRG Esports	71c	858.29$609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.52	164	51.2%84 W · 80 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Contingent Esports	18c	852.5$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.45	1,047	50.3%527 W · 520 L	+37.1wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc386…386fbacked Contingent Esports	18c	844$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.92	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-3.6wins	-0.25per pick	40cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Contingent Esports	19c	840$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.6	360	34.4%124 W · 236 L	-21.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Contingent Esports	18c	811.11$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	1,134	31%352 W · 782 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Contingent Esports	18c	772.22$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	507	45%228 W · 279 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Contingent Esports	24c	663.36$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.23	2,938	44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L	-92.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Contingent Esports	22c	597.4$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.4	438	39.7%174 W · 264 L	-24.3wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Contingent Esports	17c	502.66$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.45	331	39.9%132 W · 199 L	-10.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66d9…db30backed NRG Esports	71c	490.02$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.02	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed Contingent Esports	18c	475.06$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.51	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked Contingent Esports	18c	451.5$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.96	62	53.2%33 W · 29 L	+4.8wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10cf…60cfbacked Contingent Esports	20c	409$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.8	89	43.8%39 W · 50 L	-5.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed NRG Esports	72c	387.64$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.54	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Contingent Esports	19c	365.61$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.96	113	69%78 W · 35 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	65cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Contingent Esports	15c	333$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	132	40.9%54 W · 78 L	-7.9wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Contingent Esports	19c	328.66$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.88	297	38.7%115 W · 182 L	-5.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa61d…fefbbacked Contingent Esports	31c	321.92$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked Contingent Esports	18c	320.17$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.63	273	48%131 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3d…4d49backed Contingent Esports	18c	320$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+5.4wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x56fa…2b82backed Contingent Esports	20c	314.45$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.89	50	52%26 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36d3…1b1fbacked Contingent Esports	18c	312.78$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.3	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Contingent Esports	17c	305.71$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.97	354	43.2%153 W · 201 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe04…1481backed Contingent Esports	18c	283.33$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	77	41.6%32 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed Contingent Esports	18c	278$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e69…553abacked Contingent Esports	18c	277.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	152	48.7%74 W · 78 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Contingent Esports	18c	277.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	255	42%107 W · 148 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Contingent Esports	18c	277.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	198	40.4%80 W · 118 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Contingent Esports	18c	277.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Contingent Esports	18c	275.6$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	624	51.4%321 W · 303 L	-10.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…038ebacked NRG Esports	5c	272.18$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.18	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.31per pick	6cpaid	+492.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Contingent Esports	18c	263.42$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.42	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd82…6a10backed Contingent Esports	17c	247.78$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1242…9077backed Contingent Esports	18c	227.78$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Contingent Esports	18c	227.33$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	174	36.2%63 W · 111 L	+10.7wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Contingent Esports	17c	227.11$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.61	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-68.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Contingent Esports	25c	220.95$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	356	42.4%151 W · 205 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Contingent Esports	17c	188.73$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.08	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Contingent Esports	30c	184.21$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.26	1,385	45.1%625 W · 760 L	-12.5wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Contingent Esports	28c	184.01$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.52	1,156	45.1%521 W · 635 L	+10.8wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f7…4f7cbacked Contingent Esports	15c	177.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Contingent Esports	26c	174.88$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.26	1,389	37.7%524 W · 865 L	-45.7wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a9…e618backed Contingent Esports	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	133	49.6%66 W · 67 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Contingent Esports	18c	166.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	101	50.5%51 W · 50 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Contingent Esports	31c	149.64$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.37	2,495	47.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L	-32.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ac…5e75backed Contingent Esports	18c	127.78$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	123	51.2%63 W · 60 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc95e…102abacked Contingent Esports	19c	124.84$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.72	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93a4…6bdbbacked Contingent Esports	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	107	39.3%42 W · 65 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9b…124dbacked Contingent Esports	18c	104.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Contingent Esports	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	556	28.6%159 W · 397 L	-31.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Contingent Esports	23c	90$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	602	43.4%261 W · 341 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Contingent Esports	17c	88.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	139	51.8%72 W · 67 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e1…c227backed Contingent Esports	20c	85.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.24	80	83.8%67 W · 13 L	+11.2wins	+0.14per pick	70cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Contingent Esports	29c	75$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	417	49.2%205 W · 212 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x767e…98cabacked Contingent Esports	18c	72.44$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcb1…7992backed Contingent Esports	31c	63.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e61…2f1bbacked Contingent Esports	18c	62.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	30	60%18 W · 12 L	+4.3wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x36de…cf07backed NRG Esports	73c	54.79$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.79	153	59.5%91 W · 62 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78fb…56bcbacked NRG Esports	74c	54.26$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.26	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Contingent Esports	32c	41.47$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	639	44.6%285 W · 354 L	-18.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)this page
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
LoL: NRG Esports vs Contingent Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League PlayoffsNRG Esports won
LoL: NRG Esports vs Contingent Esports - Game 1 WinnerNRG Esports won
LoL: NRG Esports vs Contingent Esports - Game 2 WinnerNRG Esports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Game Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Contingent Esports (+1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event