Us Politics · resolved market
Will RFK end any vaccine approvals by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66e99fbf0151ca7ed61f3c3f3c54d78b77e4f319f168cf24f3e122819d8167b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 39c | 437$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 231.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 58c | 185$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.3 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes | 78c | 119$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 35c | 116.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fd…95aebacked Yes | 43c | 88.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 28c | 66.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 61.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6662…cfc5backed Yes | 76c | 39.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…b42dbacked Yes | 68c | 36.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 52c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…8ccbbacked No | 64c | 28.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.