Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66efa8e9354bcba73c114299ef0e8b82376661f1291f91b23c7b6ac716bd3ea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 6c | 4,541$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.54 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 1,001$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 911.79$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.61 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 64c | 788.83$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.43 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 20c | 521.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 387.29$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 32c | 333.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 51c | 253.61$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…e715backed No | 57c | 229.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 164.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 71c | 155.85$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 19c | 131.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 129.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 60c | 127.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd7…a265backed No | 61c | 111.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 105.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 19c | 99.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 24c | 95.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 88.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 87.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 68c | 75.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 68.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515d…b450backed No | 15c | 66.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 53c | 63.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed Yes | 32c | 58.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 79c | 49.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 33c | 48.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 47.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 46.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 45.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 34c | 41.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 47c | 40.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 62c | 38.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 71c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…09c1backed Yes | 49c | 33.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 69c | 31.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…3eb1backed Yes | 78c | 31.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 63c | 31.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 66c | 28.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 39c | 25.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 49c | 25.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…0f5abacked Yes | 77c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 75c | 22.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 62c | 20.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 71c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 73c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 55c | 18.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 68c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 16.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.