Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x672e2df608cf784913394aa03e5d6cc857b23f96d5927414f23b7a8bf8851a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Louisville Cardinals, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1064…f153backed Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.97 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…c40cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 666.89$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 625.9$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.22 | 922 | 46%424 W · 498 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 46c | 505.5$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.97 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SMU Mustangs | 47c | 470$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.01 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 457$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.86 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 448$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Louisville Cardinals | 37c | 380.63$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.07 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 364.55$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.04 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…9792backed SMU Mustangs | 63c | 122.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 270 | 55.6%150 W · 120 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 112.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 408 | 49.8%203 W · 205 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs | 47c | 81.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 159 | 47.2%75 W · 84 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…09f9backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 56.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 48.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed SMU Mustangs | 70c | 46.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 233 | 63.9%149 W · 84 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked SMU Mustangs | 50c | 40.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked SMU Mustangs | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed SMU Mustangs | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Louisville Cardinals | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 28.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed SMU Mustangs | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Louisville Cardinals | 53c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 427 | 51.8%221 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 166.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.