Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4fc4ada9c56bb191662181ffc8841700941ffce7456ddec3eb2e95bf30e3c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMU Mustangsof Louisville Cardinals, SMU Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.99 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 4,931$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.72 | 302 | 49.3%149 W · 153 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 3,798$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.04 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked SMU Mustangs | 51c | 3,702$1,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.66 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 3,093$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.64 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 1,566$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 506$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…0074backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 440.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.38 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 240$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 202.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SMU Mustangs | 49c | 155.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked SMU Mustangs | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Louisville Cardinals | 38c | 101.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed SMU Mustangs | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Louisville Cardinals | 45c | 94.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed SMU Mustangs | 49c | 83.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed SMU Mustangs | 66c | 73.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked SMU Mustangs | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed SMU Mustangs | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Louisville Cardinals | 46c | 28.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed SMU Mustangs | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU MustangsSMU Mustangs won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. SMU Mustangs: O/U 166.5Over won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-3.5)SMU Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.