MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6749a9f1241fd59f09d15ccdeb7c03b4ecb5a7c212de8b28eedd06f972cef327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 40c | 13,692$5,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,476.92 | 1,449 | 49.5%717 W · 732 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 10,188$6,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.72 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 1,937$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.58 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 659.06$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.12 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 57c | 648.62$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 499.85$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.16 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…faaebacked Over | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 63c | 488.27$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.82 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 23c | 318.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 67c | 255.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 182.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 901 | 49.1%442 W · 459 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Over | 58c | 168.86$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 65c | 159.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 813 | 51.7%420 W · 393 L | +20.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 100.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 61c | 96.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 51c | 71.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 45c | 66.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 38.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb30…a57cbacked Over | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 55c | 31.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 646 | 53.9%348 W · 298 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 57c | 28.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 47c | 21.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 61c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1,292 | 56.8%734 W · 558 L | +31.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.