MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8af2a773e724171e290a04fb47b39020b8214f42a239c5e73d544605560ba42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 2,431$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.04 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 1,105$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.7 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 1,026$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.43 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 226 | 49.6%112 W · 114 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 66c | 725.15$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.55 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 25c | 265.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 221$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 32c | 205.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 205.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 49c | 205.12$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.61 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 51c | 179.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 522 | 46.7%244 W · 278 L | -22.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…96a8backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 54cpaid | +45%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 57c | 85.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 8,682 | 52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L | +505.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1,975 | 41.3%815 W · 1,160 L | -27.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 27c | 67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 45c | 66.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 63.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 56.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 59c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7938…a655backed Under | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Under | 46c | 22.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 156 | 28.8%45 W · 111 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.