MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d9dd441ffe5de677dde3350e829bf53046906fad1742463e411caa21482c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 5,176$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.19 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 4,700$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 2,485$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.08 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 1,885$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.1 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 1,133$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.55 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 975.37$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.16 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 789.47$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 188.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 186.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 57c | 120.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 94.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 94.25$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 46c | 52.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Texas Rangers | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 28.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.