NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6781f55db28d9322a63396118141a71c6f1ea5d144b3a991424094ab341be6a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 58c | 2,222$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.39 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 42c | 1,595$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.1 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Under | 42c | 384.14$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Under | 43c | 214.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 57c | 214$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 61c | 144.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 39c | 141.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 41c | 133.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 26c | 113$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 100.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 70c | 93.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 83.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fee…842bbacked Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 60c | 72.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 24c | 65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 41c | 46.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 56c | 42.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 80c | 33.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…3d03backed Over | 58c | 24.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…8462backed Over | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 58c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 58c | 17.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. SenatorsSenators won
- Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Senators won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.