Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6786ca22a9fbc7a8674936b68753ec0b751c4717c315e07a1f1b48beda93746b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Over | 53c | 17,578$9,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,348.4 | 338 | 38.2%129 W · 209 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Under | 47c | 7,500$3,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525 | 1,482 | 50%741 W · 741 L | +65.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Under | 48c | 2,963$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Over | 54c | 2,870$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.14 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 46c | 2,200$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012 | 1,490 | 54.6%813 W · 677 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 47c | 1,418$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.53 | 2,152 | 53.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L | +58.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a6ecbacked Under | 48c | 1,351$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.48 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 46c | 877.85$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.03 | 889 | 50.5%449 W · 440 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Under | 48c | 572.4$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.2 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Under | 48c | 541.67$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 197 | 52.8%104 W · 93 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Under | 48c | 533$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 447 | 43.6%195 W · 252 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Under | 48c | 515.21$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7029…1136backed Under | 48c | 510.62$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.1 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 48c | 387.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.9 | 420 | 44%185 W · 235 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Over | 52c | 357.91$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.8 | 1,381 | 45.1%623 W · 758 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ced…0feebacked Over | 55c | 306.18$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.18 | 769 | 55%423 W · 346 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed Under | 48c | 192.02$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 564 | 32.1%181 W · 383 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 47c | 186.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 1,149 | 45.2%519 W · 630 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…61c3backed Over | 54c | 185.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…734fbacked Over | 53c | 176.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 160 | 47.5%76 W · 84 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 57c | 167.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Under | 48c | 160.49$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 1,096 | 38.9%426 W · 670 L | -47.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 45c | 154.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 131.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Under | 48c | 111.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 632 | 48.3%305 W · 327 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Over | 53c | 108.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 445 | 44.9%200 W · 245 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Under | 43c | 93.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 49c | 54.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 54c | 48.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 395 | 55.2%218 W · 177 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 49c | 47.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,300 | 49.2%639 W · 661 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 49c | 47.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 356 | 39.3%140 W · 216 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 991 | 47.1%467 W · 524 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…9642backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece0…7dc9backed Under | 45c | 33.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…8149backed Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -19.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 24.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,497 | 39.9%996 W · 1,501 L | -75.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…d7f4backed Over | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Top Esports won
- First Blood in Game 2?LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendLGD Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.