MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67891613f15018e8fe3bf61db3d3b592a4ff9ab6d17bd94dfd217c5301090ba0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 1,588$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.88 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 1,224$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 55c | 535$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Over | 44c | 513$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 287.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Under | 50c | 68.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 59.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 43.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 52c | 42.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…7c65backed Under | 52c | 27.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 13.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 15.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.