Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67c29a61370e7770d38d18de3572a155dc47548291360e9d1721981c69f7be1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 30c | 2,103$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.8 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 992.34$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.37 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 68c | 724.85$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.26 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 70c | 710.82$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.25 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Yes | 32c | 463.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 68c | 438.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.95 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 70c | 288.23$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 22c | 280$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 277.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…78e1backed No | 77c | 98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed No | 80c | 81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 79c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…b1eebacked Yes | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 71c | 58.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 25c | 55.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed No | 69c | 45.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 78c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 70c | 32.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 69c | 25.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 69c | 20.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 63 | 68.3%43 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.