Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83745d876e7bb07796c330e4709a0af7192913589ad5e830daf5dacaca4e6b0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe301…8654backed Yes | 35c | 3,892$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.73 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 65c | 3,466$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.93 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 1,451$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.45 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Yes | 33c | 1,068$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…f72abacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 12c | 776.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.17 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Yes | 53c | 761.6$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.95 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 581.61$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.76 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 71c | 433.85$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked No | 67c | 344$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 66c | 343.51$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.2 | 270 | 37%100 W · 170 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 67c | 341.33$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.78 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 58c | 297.14$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 68c | 242.06$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.53 | 242 | 47.9%116 W · 126 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 229.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed No | 60c | 213.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 211.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…db72backed Yes | 53c | 209.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 18c | 202.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked No | 18c | 139.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5909…9c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 136.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 24c | 115.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 105.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 68c | 104$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 22c | 103.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…111abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +357.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 52c | 98.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0904backed Yes | 32c | 96.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 91.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 31c | 90.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…78e1backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 52c | 86.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 56c | 84.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed No | 62c | 84.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…c60ebacked Yes | 53c | 76.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed No | 72c | 72.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed No | 64c | 68.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 38c | 50.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…ab12backed Yes | 37c | 43.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Yes | 52c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 70c | 35.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 63 | 82.5%52 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 53c | 30.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 73c | 28.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68f8…12c8backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Yes | 60c | 25.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 27 | 85.2%23 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.34per pick | 51cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 62c | 25.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 118 | 61.9%73 W · 45 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 53c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked No | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 60c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 73c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will FC Tōkyō vs. FC Machida Zelvia end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-08-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.