Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ed1a7f8abc79c8d539d58a82f858f4a18cb039274e96849e51b83320b47a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Over | 53c | 377.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.12 | 210 | 43.8%92 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 47c | 345.29$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 50c | 265.38$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…551ebacked Over | 4c | 250$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Under | 52c | 140.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 127.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed Under | 51c | 105.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Under | 21c | 103.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 207 | 63.3%131 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Over | 79c | 94.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…b162backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked Over | 50c | 90.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…2acabacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked Over | 53c | 75.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 374 | 56.4%211 W · 163 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…b4c8backed Over | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…0d42backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 55.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…1b94backed Under | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1924…504cbacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Under | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83a…3a92backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Team Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)Xtreme Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 68.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.