Mls · resolved market
Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x67ed6cd208e891a0447069485bde10beac08410ffdd84d0848832d39182f9cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CF Montréalof Orlando City SC, CF Montréal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,534 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e8…973cbacked Orlando City SC | 32c | 359$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…0730backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 353$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e3…0c9fbacked Orlando City SC | 32c | 305$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba92…ed96backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65db…62d3backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 297$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…2812backed CF Montréal | 68c | 275$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…07ebbacked CF Montréal | 68c | 269$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…9eb3backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 234$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…e6eabacked CF Montréal | 68c | 232$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…8595backed CF Montréal | 68c | 232$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…4b19backed CF Montréal | 68c | 192$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d53bbacked CF Montréal | 68c | 190$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0393…0769backed CF Montréal | 68c | 186$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…0ef4backed CF Montréal | 68c | 169$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…282cbacked CF Montréal | 68c | 167$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd07c…e4e0backed CF Montréal | 68c | 163$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…7449backed CF Montréal | 68c | 155$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CF Montréal | 71c | 101$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…5493backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…7065backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc022…d8a1backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…8792backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Orlando City SC | 32c | 87.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked CF Montréal | 70c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)this page
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.