Mls · resolved market
Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c8d6e41d21b1f700a1c440bde03e571f0b2e1de81c80339719858691e7edd6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,921 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 388.85$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.94 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 333.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked Under | 59c | 316.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Under | 51c | 275$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…25a5backed Over | 24c | 213.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 23c | 180.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 76c | 176.31$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 30c | 157.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 118.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 114.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 54c | 83.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 55c | 81.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 29c | 79.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 74.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 24c | 63.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 78c | 47.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa879…fff5backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 41c | 24.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Over | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 67c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 78c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 78c | 16.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5this page
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5Over won
- Orlando City SC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CF Montréal (-1.5)Orlando City SC won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)CF Montréal won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.