Tennis · resolved market
ITF Champaign: Jack Satterfield vs Naoya Honda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6812f2b526e6891ebe9a7310fa1bae1282322f8653441b82d40187f68ad10592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoya Hondaof Jack Satterfield, Naoya Honda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Naoya Honda | 38c | 7,496$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,641.88 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Jack Satterfield | 57c | 4,862$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Jack Satterfield | 45c | 1,517$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.78 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 62c | 639.07$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.42 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoya Honda | 76c | 601.82$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.12 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Jack Satterfield | 55c | 550.4$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.12 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Jack Satterfield | 32c | 279.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Jack Satterfield | 42c | 268.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Naoya Honda | 65c | 222.93$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Naoya Honda | 63c | 162.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Jack Satterfield | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Naoya Honda | 63c | 153$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 1,459 | 50.1%731 W · 728 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Jack Satterfield | 31c | 151.61$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Jack Satterfield | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Jack Satterfield | 26c | 123.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Jack Satterfield | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Jack Satterfield | 44c | 120.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Naoya Honda | 56c | 120.45$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Naoya Honda | 51c | 108$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Jack Satterfield | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Jack Satterfield | 42c | 102.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Naoya Honda | 48c | 99.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Jack Satterfield | 38c | 97.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Jack Satterfield | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Jack Satterfield | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Naoya Honda | 60c | 88.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…ad76backed Naoya Honda | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Naoya Honda | 65c | 81.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…f311backed Naoya Honda | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 255 | 51%130 W · 125 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Jack Satterfield | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Jack Satterfield | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Naoya Honda | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Jack Satterfield | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Jack Satterfield | 42c | 54.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Naoya Honda | 77c | 53.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…3a8bbacked Naoya Honda | 69c | 50.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Jack Satterfield | 59c | 47.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Jack Satterfield | 60c | 47.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Jack Satterfield | 59c | 47.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Jack Satterfield | 36c | 46.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Naoya Honda | 64c | 36.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Naoya Honda | 56c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Naoya Honda | 69c | 25.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e20…5cf9backed Naoya Honda | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 355 | 55.5%197 W · 158 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Jack Satterfield | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Jack Satterfield | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Jack Satterfield | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Jack Satterfield | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Jack Satterfield | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Naoya Honda | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Naoya Honda | 69c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.