Tennis · resolved market

Mexican Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6824efa2ef7dd1b664e276988b520d6ea291a3e139019d617edc4063e11a4552

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Fokinaof Altmaier, Fokina
Resolved: Feb 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $76,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,087 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Altmaier	2c	8,221$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.65	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Altmaier	14c	6,379$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.07	182	37.9%69 W · 113 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Altmaier	19c	4,586$868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$867.74	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Altmaier	7c	2,758$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.44	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Altmaier	6c	2,145$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	973	7.9%77 W · 896 L	-20.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Fokina	78c	2,000$1,563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$437.43	441	63.7%281 W · 160 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Altmaier	16c	1,879$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.54	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe846…35a9backed Altmaier	19c	1,563$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.97	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Altmaier	36c	949.33$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.28	4,426	51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L	+136.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Altmaier	27c	901$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.24	1,008	46%464 W · 544 L	-19.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fb7…fb66backed Altmaier	27c	845$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.81	536	44.8%240 W · 296 L	-20.2wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Fokina	68c	811.11$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255.98	470	57.2%269 W · 201 L	+16.8wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa36c…5754backed Altmaier	25c	798.2$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.9	420	42.6%179 W · 241 L	-11.0wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53f7…2544backed Altmaier	20c	768.2$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.64	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Altmaier	28c	735.39$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.29	2,746	30.8%846 W · 1,900 L	-67.1wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Altmaier	14c	574.26$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.73	1,973	46.3%914 W · 1,059 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Altmaier	27c	542$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.92	970	46.6%452 W · 518 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Altmaier	29c	500$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.99	737	45.2%333 W · 404 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f8…4656backed Altmaier	13c	470$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Altmaier	13c	458$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.54	1,028	33.6%345 W · 683 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Altmaier	31c	425.81$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	130	52.3%68 W · 62 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Altmaier	14c	425.2$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb893…bf4bbacked Altmaier	25c	399.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	632	47.6%301 W · 331 L	-15.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Altmaier	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,768	43.2%764 W · 1,004 L	+2.9wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Altmaier	13c	384.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,107	43.5%481 W · 626 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x343b…241dbacked Altmaier	13c	359.56$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Fokina	74c	358.66$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.68	4,288	40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L	-139.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Altmaier	27c	356$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.34	990	44.8%444 W · 546 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Fokina	53c	355.8$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.31	813	49.1%399 W · 414 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Altmaier	12c	341.41$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.97	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fokina	70c	330.79$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.27	7,816	50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L	+95.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Altmaier	18c	311.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.29	6,786	48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L	+56.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Altmaier	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1,240	41.2%511 W · 729 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Altmaier	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	363	49.9%181 W · 182 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Altmaier	16c	234.23$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Altmaier	19c	228$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.32	51	33.3%17 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Altmaier	9c	225$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	333	26.4%88 W · 245 L	-14.1wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Altmaier	29c	200$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.79	692	49.6%343 W · 349 L	-9.4wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Altmaier	13c	198.91$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.57	1,809	43.8%793 W · 1,016 L	-2.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Fokina	79c	150$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.5	95	67.4%64 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a0…1717backed Altmaier	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Altmaier	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	244	54.9%134 W · 110 L	+12.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Altmaier	13c	136$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	857	48.2%413 W · 444 L	+33.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+13%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9973…cc32backed Altmaier	13c	122.23$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Altmaier	16c	122.17$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.31	289	33.2%96 W · 193 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Altmaier	17c	114.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.99	6,439	54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L	+285.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Altmaier	13c	111.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Altmaier	38c	111$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	4,602	48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L	+34.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe694…8823backed Altmaier	15c	102.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bec…37d3backed Fokina	78c	100$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	142	72.5%103 W · 39 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Altmaier	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1,026	46.8%480 W · 546 L	+14.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Altmaier	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9edc…b088backed Altmaier	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	284	24.3%69 W · 215 L	-7.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a32…9875backed Fokina	67c	90.53$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.88	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d76…90c2backed Altmaier	21c	80.95$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	74	59.5%44 W · 30 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9bb…e773backed Altmaier	16c	72.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49b9…9613backed Fokina	77c	70$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.1	126	64.3%81 W · 45 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	67cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Fokina	78c	68.68$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.95	125	48%60 W · 65 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Altmaier	18c	67$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	381	33.9%129 W · 252 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Altmaier	20c	63.21$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	3,270	13.8%450 W · 2,820 L	-549.1wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Altmaier	34c	59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	925	48.8%451 W · 474 L	+20.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Fokina	63c	56.13$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.81	2,426	47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Fokina	68c	20.59$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.59	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfa3…5d5cbacked Fokina	77c	19.52$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.52	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee3…f07ebacked Fokina	79c	19$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.99	60	68.3%41 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	72cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41c8…424fbacked Fokina	63c	18.36$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.88	129	58.1%75 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e0…ad29backed Fokina	79c	17.72$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.72	94	70.2%66 W · 28 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5e…e0f7backed Fokina	61c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.63	275	52%143 W · 132 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mexican Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinathis page
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs FokinaFokina won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mexican Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event