O/U 48.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x682b1ee6a0d1f967a7314427f980dcc41524fca9cbc4cf2eba6024e3c7f2e8d4

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 31, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,399
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,399 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in College Football
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Over	50c	16,813$8,407 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,406.72	935	48.4%453 W · 482 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Under	50c	16,000$8,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,000	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-7.0wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-36%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Over	49c	9,000$4,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,590	385	46%177 W · 208 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Under	51c	6,078$3,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,100	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	51c	3,168$1,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,615.69	243	48.1%117 W · 126 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Over	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,440	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	1,695$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$828.11	2,013	49.6%999 W · 1,014 L	+24.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Under	51c	1,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	85	44.7%38 W · 47 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Under	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	132	42.4%56 W · 76 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Over	51c	270.08$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.32	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	49c	208$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.92	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8160…c908backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eee…bc95backed Over	56c	178.57$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.57	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	51c	110.03$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.08	284	40.8%116 W · 168 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Under	49c	103$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.47	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under	51c	97.05$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f79…c16cbacked Under	49c	60$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Under	49c	59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	53cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a8…753bbacked Over	51c	57$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.93	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under	50c	41.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	399	54.1%216 W · 183 L	+21.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Under	46c	37.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	160	50%80 W · 80 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6666…c652backed Under	46c	27.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked Over	51c	26$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a14…8610backed Over	51c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.29	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca61…f06abacked Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

O/U 48.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event