College Football · resolved market
Spread: Texas (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6e6af7b59795a836c7668ba36b740cdae52c71ae2ed7e429531ce6d7be75051
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texasof Texas, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,006,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,008,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,006,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Michigan | 51c | 964,028$491,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491,653.86 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Texas | 49c | 550,938$269,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280,978.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texas | 49c | 328,981$160,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168,007.36 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Texas | 49c | 100,000$49,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,000 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Michigan | 52c | 22,070$11,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,482.57 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan | 51c | 11,722$6,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,019.19 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Texas | 49c | 11,000$5,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,661.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Texas | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan | 50c | 1,565$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.35 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Texas | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +8.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Texas | 48c | 729.17$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.17 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Texas | 39c | 703.35$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.04 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Texas | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Michigan | 70c | 400$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Texas | 51c | 327.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.55 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Texas | 50c | 313.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Texas | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Texas | 49c | 254.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.97 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Michigan | 53c | 213.21$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Texas | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…fe1abacked Texas | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Texas | 49c | 195.16$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Michigan | 51c | 190.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0266…2957backed Texas | 60c | 183.49$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Michigan | 52c | 125.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Texas | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…498fbacked Michigan | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked Texas | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Michigan | 54c | 46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…4006backed Texas | 55c | 41.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Texas | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked Texas | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Michigan | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texas | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Texas | 48c | 27.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…7d64backed Michigan | 74c | 24.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…1c24backed Michigan | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Michigan | 52c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Michigan | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Michigan | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas (-4.5)this page
- Michigan vs. TexasTexas won
- O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: Texas (-5.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-6.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-7.5)Texas won
- Spread: Texas (-8.5)Texas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.