Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6860a2bdbecf1933a32bdb2b445d51da80876eb98f450eb4cd047ec154c71b08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,438$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 538.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 351$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed Yes | 15c | 348.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 19c | 343.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 17c | 323.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Yes | 15c | 280.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 6c | 251.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e4…352dbacked Yes | 4c | 251.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 21c | 235.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 5c | 219.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 194.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8b…a682backed Yes | 8c | 189.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…230ebacked Yes | 22c | 181.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…358ebacked Yes | 12c | 170.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 19c | 158.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 11c | 156.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…0234backed Yes | 18c | 137.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…b5a1backed Yes | 13c | 135.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 102.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…b173backed Yes | 18c | 101.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…1b59backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…7988backed Yes | 14c | 96.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 95.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 19c | 95.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 76.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 79c | 76.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…132ebacked Yes | 22c | 68.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 67.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 20c | 64.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 26c | 62.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 17c | 60.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…f96dbacked Yes | 21c | 57.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…566ebacked No | 80c | 49.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 20.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 74c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 80c | 13.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.