TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,896 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers73c8,964$6,536 inLost-$6,536.318,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Detroit Tigers66c6,000$3,960 inLost-$3,96019143.5%83 W · 108 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals53c5,908$3,118 inWon+$2,790.324,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a7…dc87backed Kansas City Royals64c5,900$3,769 inWon+$2,131.111346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals40c5,259$2,093 inWon+$3,165.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers55c2,220$1,225 inLost-$1,224.54,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals17c2,002$340 inWon+$1,661.5710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals18c1,476$267 inWon+$1,208.858,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed Detroit Tigers66c596.2$394 inLost-$394.471266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+48.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Kansas City Royals37c578.77$213 inWon+$365.982,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers63c474.03$300 inLost-$299.591,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers80c469.38$373 inLost-$373.3312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers79c361.6$287 inLost-$286.968,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Detroit Tigers55c222$122 inLost-$122.451,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Detroit Tigers55c219.65$121 inLost-$121.1647358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Detroit Tigers35c184$64 inLost-$64.415340.5%62 W · 91 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3618…b2b2backed Detroit Tigers75c136.45$103 inLost-$102.747838.5%30 W · 48 L-7.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Kansas City Royals41c122.23$50 inWon+$71.841,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Detroit Tigers55c113.5$63 inLost-$62.7840658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Detroit Tigers55c113.5$63 inLost-$62.8355259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Detroit Tigers74c97.56$72 inLost-$72.347852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Detroit Tigers74c92.65$69 inLost-$68.542,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Detroit Tigers59c84.71$50 inLost-$49.91,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Kansas City Royals31c64.58$20 inWon+$44.565637.5%21 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Detroit Tigers75c52.23$39 inLost-$39.1525355.7%141 W · 112 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Detroit Tigers76c45.69$35 inLost-$34.6344651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Detroit Tigers41c45.58$19 inLost-$18.849,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1fd…10ccbacked Kansas City Royals64c44.52$28 inWon+$16.037869.2%54 W · 24 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Detroit Tigers49c40.82$20 inLost-$2021343.2%92 W · 121 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40e9…494fbacked Kansas City Royals44c38.6$17 inWon+$21.612128.9%35 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-36.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals40c28.07$11 inWon+$16.865,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8ef…f7a1backed Detroit Tigers79c19.52$15 inLost-$15.424944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers73c14$10 inLost-$10.225,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.