MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e02b57f89b6785aa3241c7786e83f410c306294e220d6df9a1f53f6f2543e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 44,283$22,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,698.83 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 29,630$14,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,518.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 7,426$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 2,010$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 1,112$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.97 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 50c | 461.46$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.73 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 50c | 280.18$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.19 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 228.72$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 70c | 227.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ad…be98backed Over | 51c | 102.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 72c | 84.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 49c | 73.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked Under | 28c | 71.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 53.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 48.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 50c | 36.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 49c | 33.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Under | 49c | 31.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Under | 50c | 26.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 77c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 16.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 17.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 18.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.