TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Kansas City Royalsof Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,440
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,434

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,440 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals61c1,799$1,092 inWon+$706.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers40c1,544$611 inLost-$611.34,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals61c413.27$252 inWon+$161.1810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed Detroit Tigers39c380$148 inLost-$148.213946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals61c372.86$227 inWon+$145.426,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals72c335.02$243 inWon+$92.189,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Detroit Tigers39c334.9$131 inLost-$130.611,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Detroit Tigers27c270$73 inLost-$72.98,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Detroit Tigers37c200$74 inLost-$744022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Detroit Tigers29c69.03$20 inLost-$20.025637.5%21 W · 35 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3003…30f5backed Detroit Tigers39c64.1$25 inLost-$256261.3%38 W · 24 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+26.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Detroit Tigers38c35.66$13 inLost-$13.3879955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Kansas City Royals61c34.62$21 inWon+$13.578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18ca…22c9backed Detroit Tigers39c34.62$13 inLost-$13.53145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Detroit Tigers43c25$11 inLost-$10.7920552.7%108 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.