Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689a3edb2513a9b43dca400d42679b538a3221b85ae5a44d0c894a6ae13ee9c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 39c | 1,285$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 61c | 1,062$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 21c | 498.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Under | 75c | 275.56$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Under | 65c | 152.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 101.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 40c | 99.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 72.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 66c | 60.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 59.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 37c | 53.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…d859backed Over | 38c | 30.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…3f6cbacked Under | 61c | 25.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.