Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf17ccc949b81c099cee20f54268709d4f1caddfe41f6c24356c15dd14218c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbfc…5cfabacked Over | 1c | 1,969$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,210$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.08 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 75c | 1,122$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.64 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 33c | 751.18$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.04 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 20c | 600.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.55 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 497.45$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…2134backed Over | 68c | 374.24$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.94 | 140 | 60.7%85 W · 55 L | +19.7wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 45c | 347.05$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.05 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Under | 37c | 308.88$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.61 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 25c | 270$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…7372backed Over | 8c | 267.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 53c | 262.26$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 232.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 75c | 228$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Under | 34c | 167.65$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 34c | 142.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 142$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 74c | 141.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Over | 80c | 112.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 74cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 80c | 108.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 80c | 99.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…b307backed Under | 30c | 82.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…068dbacked Under | 23c | 78.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +72%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Over | 79c | 74.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 57c | 71.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3061…dd00backed Under | 45c | 53.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 77c | 50.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad6b…1fdebacked Under | 28c | 41.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 78c | 26.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 79c | 20.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 76c | 16.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.