Fifa International · resolved market
Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68b8125982d9c9b5cc04409fe51efbb5e9c92521c9ee950533b532dea8754052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 19c | 1,010$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.82 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d75…1af0backed Over | 35c | 715.4$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…9200backed Over | 70c | 562.93$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 55c | 534.85$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Over | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…6fd3backed Under | 65c | 489.5$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 483.11$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.3 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce72…cbefbacked Over | 65c | 360.07$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 6c | 296.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 69c | 285.15$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 200 | 67.5%135 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 36c | 267.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 36c | 236.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 65c | 181.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.18 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 19c | 170.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 64c | 165.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 45c | 139.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 127.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0542…e195backed Over | 37c | 125.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…3bd4backed Under | 32c | 123.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 33c | 118.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef8a…7035backed Over | 70c | 107.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 64c | 102$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 76c | 101.36$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 407 | 36.6%149 W · 258 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 40c | 98.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 36c | 96.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.54 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Over | 17c | 93.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 65c | 90.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 85 | 72.9%62 W · 23 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 64c | 88.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 69c | 71.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 66c | 67.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…6093backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 64c | 27.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 77c | 14.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…078dbacked Under | 76c | 13.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 2.5this page
- Liberia vs. Libya: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 1.5Over won
- Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 3.5Over won
- Liberia vs. Libya: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Liberia (-1.5)Libya won
- Spread: Liberia (-2.5)Libya won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.