NFL · resolved market
Texans vs. Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c2c77ad151f4c3fced80d42ef7e41efa30e0a9610d52248900bdc12994241e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texans of Texans , Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Lions | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Texans | 48c | 19,473$9,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,108.27 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Lions | 52c | 5,871$3,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,053.08 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Texans | 50c | 4,291$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,163.01 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Texans | 50c | 3,856$1,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Lions | 1c | 3,537$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Lions | 48c | 3,200$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +12.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Texans | 50c | 3,098$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Lions | 51c | 1,792$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.69 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Texans | 48c | 703.46$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Lions | 55c | 388.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.34 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Lions | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Texans | 48c | 298.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.03 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Texans | 46c | 247.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.86 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Texans | 47c | 213.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Lions | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Texans | 47c | 200.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.11 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Lions | 49c | 197.3$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Texans | 51c | 196.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Lions | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac29…fa88backed Lions | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Lions | 54c | 184.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texans | 59c | 119.56$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Lions | 54c | 112.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Lions | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Texans | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Lions | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Texans | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Texans | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Lions | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Texans | 60c | 66.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Texans | 76c | 53.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…b1cfbacked Lions | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Texans | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Lions | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Lions | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Lions | 50c | 47.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Texans | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Texans | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…d2fabacked Lions | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Texans | 45c | 29.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Lions | 55c | 28.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Lions | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Lions | 52c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Texans | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.