NHL · resolved market
Kraken vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68c77841903931d4fcd34012b33da8b33ef75ef81a3a5920b485ae6bfbe76878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23da…a83dbacked Over | 43c | 23,500$10,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,395 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6999…29ddbacked Under | 57c | 23,500$13,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b8…606fbacked Over | 43c | 1,424$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…3d7ebacked Under | 58c | 1,424$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 42c | 1,177$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.49 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 970$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…dc00backed Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…f285backed Under | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f55…ad91backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 40c | 392.75$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…b87abacked Under | 58c | 350$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…52e5backed Over | 42c | 350$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 60c | 333.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…a98bbacked Under | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…a5b1backed Under | 58c | 150.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…022ebacked Over | 44c | 143.02$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ead…3381backed Over | 44c | 103.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…d87fbacked Under | 58c | 96.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Under | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kraken vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Kraken vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Kraken vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.