Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68e18e41debed39e3a2cc4c26043e388b9641882cd5a393e4c563e30eb257483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 4c | 359.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 214.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 205.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 8c | 173.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.45 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 135.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 123.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7ea8backed Yes | 62c | 101.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 95.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 43c | 93.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 69.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 56.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…e118backed No | 39c | 49.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…e544backed Yes | 76c | 40.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 39.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…020fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 56c | 19.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 56c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.