La Liga · resolved market
CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68fab9c2bacf347c3aefc9fb85b30d11d688c884dfcb6a4b5f5d28c2cd327c6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 51c | 4,898$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.49 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 3,967$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.53 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 846.98$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.53 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 458.98$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.12 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 56c | 420.56$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.71 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…c382backed Over | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.24per pick | 38cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8277…7d31backed Over | 30c | 232.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 180.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Over | 44c | 110.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 37c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Over | 38c | 63.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 70c | 61.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 58.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd1…344fbacked Over | 51c | 45.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…527abacked Over | 31c | 43.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 54c | 34.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…860fbacked Over | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Over | 53c | 32.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 76c | 31.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed Under | 57c | 31.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Under | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…6566backed Under | 70c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 168 | 60.1%101 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: O/U 4.5this page
- CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5Over won
- CD Mirandés vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5)CD Mirandés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.