Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68fe8a0cc9b2f317f0fb9cbda48aac9f9bd8ce73a5893c10832f0a3dac38dfd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 42c | 267.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 54c | 225.65$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.65 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 48c | 209.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 166.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 135.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 131.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 23c | 128.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 76c | 120.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 40c | 119.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 44c | 103.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.41 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 41c | 102.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 78c | 102.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 23c | 101.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 98.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 97.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 72.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 60c | 71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 70.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 66.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 65c | 66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 59.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 53.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 45c | 52.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…bc5cbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…cb0bbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 44.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 43.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 42.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…5551backed Yes | 70c | 42.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 43c | 38.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 27.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 23.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 20.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.