Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6903a36ea1ee3eb9f8d5d976fad64c9ca0c098ba5ab8fe25930e91097bdc97a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Satan666, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Satan666 | 20c | 1,408$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Grind Back | 51c | 863.66$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.2 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Satan666 | 53c | 546.3$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.06 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…7a8fbacked Satan666 | 57c | 393.15$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.69 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…92d6backed Grind Back | 57c | 348.12$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Grind Back | 16c | 346.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Satan666 | 50c | 333.5$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.78 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Grind Back | 79c | 319$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Grind Back | 78c | 283.34$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Satan666 | 25c | 250$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Satan666 | 40c | 153.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Satan666 | 54c | 152.85$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Grind Back | 54c | 136.2$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Grind Back | 20c | 91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…0e07backed Satan666 | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Satan666 | 53c | 82.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Grind Back | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Grind Back | 48c | 62.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Satan666 | 50c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Satan666 | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Satan666 | 26c | 48.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked Satan666 | 25c | 47.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3440…ba37backed Satan666 | 76c | 42.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Grind Back | 34c | 32.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Grind Back | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.