Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c8601d3d04a5fa9196244e1640b973f894467d5bff8ccfc967d68f85b72d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grind Backof Satan666, Grind Back
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Grind Back | 70c | 473.83$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.52 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Satan666 | 23c | 311.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Satan666 | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…92d6backed Satan666 | 36c | 189.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Satan666 | 25c | 161.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Satan666 | 25c | 142.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Satan666 | 20c | 131.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Satan666 | 17c | 126.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Satan666 | 22c | 126.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Grind Back | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Grind Back | 80c | 86.5$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Grind Back | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Grind Back | 72c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Satan666 vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.