Us Politics · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x691719e9b070303e9cd0273d730667a45d568ad932d785ab6717bcbcbb04901f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7e…21f6backed Yes | 39c | 62,856$24,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,506.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…7082backed No | 64c | 34,167$21,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,866.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…9081backed No | 58c | 28,689$16,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,639.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 1,400$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked Yes | 28c | 1,377$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 25c | 1,258$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 22c | 821.74$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.29 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 62c | 789.6$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.51 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 40c | 622.88$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862b…e9e5backed Yes | 33c | 458$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 71c | 421.63$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.39 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Yes | 28c | 357.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 35c | 335$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…6237backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 266.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.32 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…d6f1backed No | 78c | 253.14$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 232.27$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9137…487cbacked No | 59c | 223$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…7f69backed No | 59c | 213.56$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 59c | 204.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 68c | 190.08$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…f24ebacked Yes | 43c | 139.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…6693backed No | 75c | 105.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 56c | 82.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…1fa8backed Yes | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +249.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 41c | 57.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…9865backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…a9c6backed No | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…02ffbacked No | 67c | 29.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 53cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…1249backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…1e8bbacked No | 59c | 25.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…57b4backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40dd…519abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…48b9backed No | 65c | 18.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…8c4ebacked No | 72c | 14.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.