Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69303c4444b45f8e0bb06246dca3707a3f7d4e26bfac903dbb069da80eeb58a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f46…06f0backed No | 52c | 465.16$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.14 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 54c | 317.89$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 278.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 275.9$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 262.71$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 48c | 255.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.64 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 224.3$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 34c | 223.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 211.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…b88fbacked Yes | 5c | 202.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 47c | 187.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 182$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 168.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 55c | 150.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 12c | 134.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 51c | 134.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 44c | 123.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 46c | 115.96$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 107.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 50c | 107.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 55c | 96.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…12d9backed No | 66c | 89.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 80.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 23c | 65.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 28c | 64.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 48c | 56.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 52.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 51.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 47c | 51.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 56c | 51.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 51c | 49.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 44c | 47.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 44.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 42.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 37.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 56c | 36.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…6430backed Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 33.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 52c | 32.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 51c | 31.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…ec06backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 52c | 26.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 43c | 25.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 61c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 45c | 22.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 22.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 48c | 21.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 66c | 21.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 56c | 19.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339c…121ebacked No | 54c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 67c | 18.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 61c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 70c | 15.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.