Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x694c909415dd6180e076d37fb4f4b7e4a7ae132e02fa5a657625c785a22d0d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 889.54$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.93 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…3fa5backed Over | 54c | 718.45$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 41c | 525$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.91 | 1,158 | 42.6%493 W · 665 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…6da9backed Over | 53c | 486.18$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.34 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 32c | 387.01$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.03 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Under | 47c | 337.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 506 | 43.1%218 W · 288 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 390 | 44.9%175 W · 215 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 64c | 256.36$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.37 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Over | 46c | 222.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 241 | 47.3%114 W · 127 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 47c | 217.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.09 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 51c | 215.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.84 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…d698backed Over | 50c | 172$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 44c | 154.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 704 | 43.9%309 W · 395 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…7e14backed Over | 49c | 123.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bd…06d4backed Over | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 49c | 58.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 43c | 55.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Under | 44c | 54.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccbf…b43cbacked Under | 54c | 53.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…93a6backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Over | 49c | 49.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…9277backed Over | 52c | 48.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f22…c4e9backed Over | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 44.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 599 | 52.8%316 W · 283 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Over | 49c | 42.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…9a13backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 50c | 38.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa6…c296backed Over | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…d199backed Over | 52c | 32.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 539 | 55.1%297 W · 242 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Under | 47c | 25.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad11…b587backed Over | 51c | 22.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…e452backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)Bilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 WinnerAnyone's Legend won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.