Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69585cc8678ab2f6b39e2e6632b052c241f974c4023bed04a71497fe1678e82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 10c | 953.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 623.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 551.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 485.87$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 15c | 469.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 75c | 435.42$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 409.55$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 41c | 402.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 350$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 17c | 303.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 253.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 238.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 232.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 210.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 191$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 179.68$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 71c | 172.63$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 71c | 159.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 25c | 138$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 50c | 133.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 74c | 117$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 112.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 110.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 110.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…161dbacked Yes | 41c | 94.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 21c | 79.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 79.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 73.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 43c | 70.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…d842backed Yes | 23c | 63.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 61.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 33c | 60.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 60.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 64c | 46.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 46.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 45.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95aa…fe61backed Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 32.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82c…2580backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 27.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 64c | 23.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 63c | 20.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 20.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 70c | 17.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 72c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 72c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 71c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.