Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c4c2d86c300f8487f2f50ad7594f557ec74af816494cda9d4617aabdce11cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,306 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 665$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…8c2fbacked Yes | 16c | 541.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.63 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a60…44adbacked Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 53c | 397.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.9 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 42c | 379.85$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.92 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 51c | 350$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 48c | 326.8$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.75 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 315.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…5414backed Yes | 7c | 294.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 294$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 262.04$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 257.31$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 12c | 257.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 24c | 236.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 198.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 191$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 176.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 167.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 58c | 138.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.51 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 136.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 130.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 74c | 123.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 117.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 26c | 113.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 27c | 106.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef7…d842backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 28c | 96.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 94.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 40c | 92.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…161dbacked Yes | 37c | 84.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 82.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 81.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 20c | 77.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 76.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 18c | 71.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 66.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 32c | 59.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 56c | 56.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…2827backed No | 79c | 55.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 54.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 54.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed Yes | 28c | 54.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 54.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 25c | 50.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 27c | 49.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 23c | 48.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 60c | 41.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 49c | 39.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 31c | 35.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 42c | 35.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 67c | 28.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 57c | 24.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x685e…983abacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 21.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 69c | 20.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.