Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x602cd1167fc973d84eda546a5a9be9bbe076c66c7e44c758d6ee84bb618a16d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked No | 1c | 977.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 553$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.29 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 40c | 551.4$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.72 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 11c | 436.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 62c | 399.23$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 16c | 380.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.77 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 319.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 23c | 253.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.06 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 253.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 228.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 218.59$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.25 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 208.81$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 42c | 204.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 191$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 185.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 22c | 177.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 20c | 153.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 16c | 151.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 24c | 149.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 146.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 16c | 145$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 124.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes | 61c | 114.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…4107backed Yes | 25c | 113$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +98%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…0694backed Yes | 68c | 106.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 103.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 14c | 92.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 13c | 92.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 22c | 84.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 15c | 76.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765d…8189backed No | 16c | 74.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 31c | 63.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x820b…30f5backed No | 38c | 61.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 75c | 58.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 73c | 53.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 21c | 52.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 43.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…d64bbacked No | 79c | 43.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 43.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5460…387ebacked Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +256.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 63c | 28.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 64c | 26.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…9345backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 64c | 24.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 24.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 73c | 20.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 82°F or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.