Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Lloyd Harris vs Federico Cina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6959d0086cd839e0fe0ea2394b21036448d7ebd8c72c256badf7ae88c6b3a600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cinaof Harris, Cina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cina | 71c | 2,622$1,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.87 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Cina | 50c | 2,515$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.94 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Harris | 49c | 2,030$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…2260backed Harris | 9c | 1,871$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 161 | 58.4%94 W · 67 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Harris | 46c | 1,499$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.35 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cina | 63c | 1,381$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.25 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Harris | 3c | 1,029$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Cina | 66c | 676.21$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.19 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Harris | 39c | 406.41$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Harris | 45c | 378.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.97 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Cina | 52c | 343.61$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.73 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Harris | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cina | 55c | 295.62$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Harris | 28c | 264.54$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.39 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Harris | 67c | 256$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.4 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Cina | 54c | 196.45$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Cina | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked Harris | 47c | 180.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cina | 68c | 148.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Harris | 45c | 123.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…b807backed Cina | 50c | 100.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Harris | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Cina | 71c | 97.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Harris | 46c | 97.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cina | 56c | 87.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cina | 66c | 58.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Harris | 62c | 53.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Cina | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…2ff9backed Harris | 53c | 49.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Harris | 60c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Harris | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 29.8%57 W · 134 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…8115backed Harris | 64c | 39.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc837…2e91backed Harris | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -5.6wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde2d…1e4dbacked Harris | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed Cina | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…68edbacked Harris | 43c | 36.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Harris | 37c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7206…4861backed Cina | 39c | 29.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Cina | 46c | 29.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Harris | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…0b18backed Harris | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Harris | 58c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.