MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x695e72c494b92aac24101988f87667873582616c819ba3022276a14f4cbd6fff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 5,378$2,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,772.41 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 29c | 4,738$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.5 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 4,122$2,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,102.19 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.34 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 53c | 529.58$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Chicago White Sox | 22c | 128.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 122.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 70.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 161 | 53.4%86 W · 75 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Chicago White Sox | 26c | 66.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Chicago White Sox | 33c | 51.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 49.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 41.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 35.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 34.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Chicago White Sox | 42c | 34.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 34.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 24.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.