MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf490b664378a5bc4bd1a16b55325ebd8ac580ea2d0f3ee9d3e609a7d095e869c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 53c | 11,504$6,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,406.8 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 5,825$2,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,737.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 5,684$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,671.19 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,339.98 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 2,727$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.84 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 2,326$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.85 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 2,060$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 2,032$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 1,537$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.38 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 1,521$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.11 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,497$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 41c | 1,257$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.43 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 47c | 1,119$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 53c | 1,024$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 68c | 650.45$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.62 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 47c | 620.69$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.73 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 63c | 489.21$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.37 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 48c | 477.73$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 377.92$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.18 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 272$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 55c | 257.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.69 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 47c | 202.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 52c | 187.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 61c | 159.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 147$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 66c | 112.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 48c | 96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 45c | 80.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 44c | 73.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 66.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 40c | 58.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 50c | 58.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 54.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Over | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 52c | 48.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 44c | 48.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 40.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 46c | 38.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 37.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…527bbacked Under | 37c | 35.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 48c | 31.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cc94backed Under | 44c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.