MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93b8be90579cd5a957e6f0ecd53347714e3db2ea1c425738beacc690f0916f26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 44c | 16,026$7,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,954.01 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 6,653$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,254.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 48c | 5,935$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 56c | 5,060$2,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 41c | 4,506$1,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,845.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 38c | 2,485$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.86 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 2,278$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 1,731$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.21 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 54c | 1,306$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.48 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 46c | 1,024$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ecf7backed Under | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…552ebacked Under | 44c | 956.23$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 944.96$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 684$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 45c | 586.36$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 525$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 430$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.2 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 56c | 390$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 315.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 57c | 244.94$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 183.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 181.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 42c | 172.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 46c | 158.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 20c | 120.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 119.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 47c | 99.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 40c | 95.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 52c | 95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 68c | 89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.48 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 65c | 77.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 73.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 63c | 64.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 57c | 63.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 64c | 56.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 59c | 54.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Under | 21c | 50.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 65c | 49.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 52c | 41.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 46c | 39.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 59c | 39.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 56c | 38.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 55c | 38.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Under | 60c | 36.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 69c | 35.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Under | 62c | 34.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 25.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…a2dcbacked Under | 56c | 21.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…7192backed Under | 54c | 18.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 63c | 17.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 61c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Under | 61c | 16.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 61cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.