TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,872
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,872 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd48a…6e90backed Over44c16,026$7,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,954.011,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over51c6,653$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,254.0210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under48c5,935$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.924,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c5,060$2,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,833.61,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under41c4,506$1,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.328,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Over38c2,485$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.869831.6%31 W · 67 L-13.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c2,278$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.7912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under56c1,731$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.2111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under54c1,306$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.4836048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over46c1,024$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.962,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Under54c999.99$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.993946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ed…552ebacked Under44c956.23$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.742937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under54c944.96$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.168,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under56c684$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.046,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over45c586.36$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.32,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over45c525$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.758,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Under55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27523758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under54c430$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.286653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under56c390$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.41,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over49c315.07$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.129,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee4f…c0f0backed Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1535749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Under57c244.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14081257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over43c183.25$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.451,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over54c181.77$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.891,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under42c172.28$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.972,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under46c158.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.192,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under56c142$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5216132.3%52 W · 109 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under20c120.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.522,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over45c119.5$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.731,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x702e…ff44backed Over47c99.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9826444.3%117 W · 147 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under40c95.49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1452638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d2c…00b5backed Under52c95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.458846.6%41 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Over68c89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4816846.4%78 W · 90 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Under65c77.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.355645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Under46c73.27$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3447852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81a…c368backed Over42c70$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.640446.5%188 W · 216 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460c…b5b5backed Under63c64.71$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.654746.8%22 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Under57c63.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.456435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b4…11adbacked Under46c59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1117148%82 W · 89 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Under64c56.62$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3548751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under59c54.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1247056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0617…08d9backed Under21c50.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.594628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2831844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Under32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under65c49.22$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8842451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under50c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.435,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under55c45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.756,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under56c43.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.341,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over52c41.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6179955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over46c39.96$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5813345.9%61 W · 72 L-0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under59c39.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0373355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under56c38.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under55c38.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9778854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Under60c36.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0221547%101 W · 114 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Under69c35.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6230548.9%149 W · 156 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d9…10d9backed Under62c34.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9544553.5%238 W · 207 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.836246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Over44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.822352.5%117 W · 106 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Under45c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0534443.9%151 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Under56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Under42c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9212143.8%53 W · 68 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under50c25.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.971,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Over44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1453950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Under56c21.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Under56c21.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0579255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Under56c21.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.045451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1010…d793backed Under53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67761%47 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under56c19.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d6…7192backed Under54c18.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Under63c17.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.238350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked Over61c16.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.690446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x013f…ca85backed Under61c16.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.44per pick61cpaid-77.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.